KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- The trigger sits upstream: on 11 September, Bayan (BYAN) declared force majeure after three subsidiaries — Fajar Sakti Prima, Tanur Jaya and Tiwa Abadi — failed to secure 2026 RKAB quota-revision approval, and only Fajar Sakti Prima sits in the Tabang project where the listed contractors work.
- The transmission runs through PT Indonesia Pratama (IPR), which mines the Fajar Sakti Prima concession and sub-contracts overburden to BUMA (DOID) and hauling to MAHA; IPR is not itself named in the force majeure, but that offers little protection.
- MAHA is the most exposed name, with IPR at about 66% of 1H26 revenue and a market cap near IDR 2.4Tn, while receivables from IPR doubled in six months to IDR 469Bn.
- DOID carries the largest contract but more diversification, with IPR now BUMA number-one customer at 35% of 1H26 revenue; a 4Q26 stoppage would be close to existential for MAHA quarterly earnings but compresses DOID margins hard yet stays survivable, and we stay short-term negative on both until quota clarity.
Regards, Aldiracita Research
