KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- The headline operating profit growth is a currency gain, not trading. ACES reports profit from operations after other income, and that line jumped to IDR 160 Bn in 2Q26 from IDR 56 Bn. Inside it, the net FX gain was IDR 122 Bn in 2Q26 against a IDR 5 Bn loss in 2Q25, a swing of IDR 127 Bn that is larger than the entire IDR 98 Bn increase in reported operating profit. Strip the FX line and 2Q26 operating profit fell 14.2% YoY, and 1H26 fell 0.6%. On the narrowest measure, gross profit less operating expenses, 2Q26 core operating profit fell 5.1%.
- The trading picture is modest growth with cost pressure. 2Q26 net sales rose only 2.5% YoY to IDR 2,186 Bn and fell 7.1% QoQ; 1H26 is up 6.3%. Gross margin did improve, up 1.9pp YoY to 48.6%, the best of the three quarters shown. Against that, operating expenses rose 8.5% YoY against a 2.5% sales gain, lifting the opex ratio to 42.5% from 40.2%. That is what turns a gross margin gain into a decline in core operating profit.
- Net profit of IDR 227 Bn rose 49.9% YoY on the same mechanism. Pre-tax profit rose 54.9%, but neither is a read on trading once the currency line is removed. Two smaller items helped: net finance charges fell to IDR 30 Bn in 1H26 from IDR 34 Bn. Right-of-use depreciation of IDR 228 Bn in 1H26, up 10.2%, remains the dominant depreciation item and reflects the leased store base.
- Against consensus the picture is mixed once the composition is understood. 1H26 revenue is 48.6% of the FY26 forecast against a 49.4% share in 1H25, fractionally behind its own pace, while operating income at 61.2% and net profit at 53.6% are ahead — but the operating income gap is the FX gain, not trading. On valuation, ACES trades at 7.9x LTM P/E against a five-year mean of 17.7x, though that mean is pulled up by a 40.8x average in 2021 the stock has not revisited since 2022. Key watch: whether the opex ratio comes back down, because a 2.4pp increase on 2.5% sales growth is not sustainable without price or mix support.
Regards, Aldiracita Research
