KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- The rush leaves less. 1H26 revenue fell 26% YoY as opening contract liabilities dropped 32%, but conversion held at 34%: the backlog shrank, handovers did not slow.
- The encore takes shape. BSD City Phase III and JV land sales anchor the next cycle, with c.IDR 3.0tn of Hiera and c.IDR 1.75tn of Nava Park 2 land-sale pipeline.
- Yesterday’s costs linger. A higher opex base caps EBIT margin at 27% in FY27F; we forecast FY26F–FY28F net profit CAGR of 20.5%.
VALUATION
- BUY (Initiation), TP IDR 905 (Last price: IDR 550, +65% upside), on RNAV of IDR 5,996/share at the 85% mean discount.
- The stock trades at a 91% discount to NAV, beyond +2 SD, and 5.2x FY27F P/E. Catalysts: backlog refill, JV income recovery, Nava Park 2’s 2027 launch.
Regards, Aldiracita Research