US CPI posts steepest monthly drop since 2020 as energy collapses, but Iran ceasefire has broken down

July 15, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • US June 2026 headline CPI fell 0.4% mom to 3.5% (May: 4.2%; Cons: 3.8%), the steepest one-month decline since April 2020. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat on the month, pulling annual core inflation down to 2.6% from 2.9% (Cons: 2.9%).
  • Energy did nearly all the work, dropping 5.7% mom, its largest monthly fall since April 2020. However, the cooling was not purely an energy mirage: shelter rose just 0.1% month-on-month, the smallest gain since January 2021.
  • Markets read the print as room for the Fed to stay on hold, but the Iran-US ceasefire that drove June’s oil collapse has since broken down.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

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Subsidiaries :
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Phone: (021)-39725678

©Copyright 2024, PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).