KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Pama overburden 98.4 mn bcm in Aug-26, up 9% MoM and 3% YoY, its best month since Oct-25. The stripping ratio rose to 7.5x from 6.9x.
- Komatsu 296 units in Aug-26, down 26% MoM and 5% YoY. Mining machines fell to 145 units from 227 in Jul-26.
- Turangga 388k tons in Aug-26, down 57% YoY. By 21 Aug the Barito near the Kalahien bridge was only about 0.6m deep, and in early Sep it was still too shallow for loaded barges. Gold rose to 10k oz from 9k oz.
- Our read: mixed but tilted positive. Jul-Aug volumes already equal 77% of 2Q26 overburden and 78% of 2Q26 Komatsu units. If September sustains the Jul-Aug pace and 2Q26 pricing holds, 9M26 revenue could reach around 79% of FY26F consensus. UNTR trades at 7.0x forward P/E vs a 6.2x 5-year mean. Key watch: whether the Barito recovers in September, and whether Pama holds above 90 mn bcm.
Regards, Aldiracita Research