TRADE TAKEAWAYS — APRIL 2026
- Trade surplus collapsed to USD 0.09 billion in April 2026 — the thinnest since April 2020 deficit, a massive miss against Bloomberg consensus of USD 1.31 billion, extending the consecutive monthly surplus streak to 72 months.
- Export surge is real but structurally uneven: CPO, iron & steel, and nickel lead; crude oil and natural gas remain a persistent structural drag.
- The real story on imports: O&G imports exploded +85.52% YoY in April — the primary driver of the consensus miss and the near-zero surplus.
- Macro implication: the O&G import explosion, combined with below-target oil lifting, creates a structural imported inflation risk and amplifies Rupiah pressure.
Regards, Aldiracita Research