Subsidy bill hits 84% of ceiling with a quarter left; 9M26 deficit still 1.24% of GDP

October 12, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • The 9M26 budget looks comfortable, but September turned sharply: revenue reached IDR2,341.5 tn (+25.5% yoy) against spending of IDR2,660.5 tn (+19.0%), leaving a deficit of IDR319.0 tn (1.24% of GDP), while September alone ran a deficit of IDR78.9 tn.
  • Energy is the pressure point: subsidy and compensation spending reached IDR376.8 tn, or 84.3% of its implied full-year ceiling, with energy compensation already at 120.5% of the roughly IDR128.1 tn implied for the year; at the current run rate we see an overshoot of IDR55.4 tn (12.4%).
  • Revenue is the cushion: non-tax revenue is already at 107.2% of its full-year budget and tax growth held at 24.1%, while the fourth-quarter revenue target needs only a 4.0% step-up that September’s IDR285.9 tn already clears.
  • Stripping out lower tax refunds and the one-off IDR55.0 tn Bank Indonesia surplus lifts the 9M26 deficit to an implied 2.06% of GDP (Aldiracita illustrative estimate), and FY26F to 3.7-3.9% versus 2.90% reported. APBN 2027 budgets a smaller 2.40% deficit on an ICP of USD75/bbl. Key watch: whether October-November compensation slows toward the IDR23.4 tn monthly room left or keeps running near IDR42 tn, which would reopen the supplementary-budget question.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Phone: 021-39705858

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Email: [email protected]

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Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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