SMIL — Initiating Coverage; EV Transition Offsets Bond Headwinds

July 17, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • A recurring, high-margin rental annuity with pricing power. Fleet-driven rental supports a sector-leading ~58% EBITDA margin; we forecast 20% rental revenue CAGR through FY28F, with electric units renting above diesel and utilisation heading toward 80%.
  • A growing forklift-sales and after-market franchise. As HELI’s sole ATPM in Indonesia since 2024, SMIL is scaling sales at a 12.5% CAGR through FY28F, with each unit seeding a recurring parts-and-service stream (~10–20% of sale value p.a.).
  • Optionality from mining rental and deleveraging. A new coal-mining rental line ramps to ~IDR 40bn revenue by FY30, while full bond amortisation drives a net-cash position by FY29 — neither yet in the price.
  • Earnings recovery already visible in 1Q26. FY25’s 18% profit drop was purely bond interest, not operations; 1Q26 annualised net profit hit IDR 123bn (+86% YoY), net margin back to 24%.

VALUATION

  • BUY (Initiation), TP IDR 360 (Last price: IDR 318, +13% upside), on a five-year DCF.
  • At IDR 318 the stock de-rates from 23.1x FY26F to 13.7x FY28F P/E as earnings normalise.
  • A justified premium to peers (FY26F P/E 23.1x vs 15.0x avg) on structurally higher margins. Catalysts: the FY26 snap-back, bond amortisation, and the mining ramp.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

Customer Service (WhatsApp): +6288801010088

Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
Aldiracita Global Investment Pte Ltd

8 Temasek Boulevard, #04 – 01, Suntec Tower Three, Singapore 038988

PT Surya Timur Alam Raya Asset Management

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

©Copyright 2024, PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

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Anindita Cintasya

Director of Investment Banking

Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

Our Fixed Income Sales

Mario Martin
Head of Fixed Income Sales
Mindo Leona
VP of Fixed Income Sales
Schedule a consultation with our Fixed Income Sales

Mindo Leona Christina Pardede

President Director

Mindo Leona Christina earned her Bachelor’s degree in Public Relations from Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jakarta in 2000. She joined Aldira in 2021 as Vice President of Fixed Income Sales and has been serving as President Director since 2025. With over 20 years of experience in Indonesia’s capital market, she specializes in Fixed Income. She also holds a capital market license as a Broker-Dealer Representative.

Livius Nurtanio

Senior Managing Director

Livius graduated from University of Toronto in 1995. He joined PT. Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia as Vice President Director from 4 October 2023. Livius has more than 20+ years of experience in Investment Banking both in Securities, Private Equity and Investment Banks in Indonesia, and overseas such as New York, Hongkong, Singapore as a Research Analyst, Head of Fixed Income, Financial Advisor, Senior Associate, Executive and Managing Director. He holds a capital market license for Broker-Dealer Representative and Underwriter Representative from OJK.

Christian Kurniawan

Director

Christian Kurniawan is a seasoned finance professional with over 15 years of experience in accounting, financial management, and capital markets. Prior to joining Aldiracita, Christian built his career at Moore Stephens Consulting, progressing from Junior to Associate Manager. During this time, he was actively involved in financial due diligence, valuation, and advisory services across various industries, strengthening his expertise in financial analysis and corporate transactions.

Christian holds a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from Universitas Katolik Atma Jaya and is a certified Wakil Perantara Pedagang Efek (WPPE). He has also completed professional programs in taxation and leadership, reflecting his commitment to continuous professional development.

B Hari Mantoro

Independent Commissioner

Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).