Rating: idA+ (Pefindo)
Diversified Gold-Copper-Nickel Miner Returns as Earnings Inflect Higher
PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk (MDKA) is one of Indonesia’s largest diversified metals producers, spanning gold (Tujuh Bukit and the newly-producing Pani mine), copper (Wetar and the world-class Tujuh Bukit Copper porphyry – ~8.3mt Cu, 28.1moz Au) and, through listed subsidiary MBMA, an integrated nickel and sulphuric-acid platform. Backed by the Saratoga and Provident groups and Garibaldi Thohir, MDKA generated USD1.89bn of revenue and USD376mn of EBITDA in FY2025, with earnings inflecting sharply in 1Q2026 as gold realised ~USD4,841/oz and Pani delivered inaugural sales.
Indicative Structure
- Obligasi: up to IDR2.0tn – Seri A (1Y) 7.25%-8.25%, Seri B (3Y) 9.00%-10.00%
- Clean basis (unsecured), quarterly coupon, bullet repayment at maturity.
- Proceeds fund: refinancing of outstanding IDR bonds and bank loans, and/or working capital.
- Part of PUB V (target IDR15.0tn; remaining IDR8.9tn), Tahap IV.
Why This Deal
- idA+ credit backed by a diversified, inflecting metals platform. 1Q2026 revenue rose to USD620.3mn (+23.5% YoY) with EBITDA of USD250.0mn at a 40.3% margin; net profit to owners turned positive at USD57.5mn (total net profit USD120.2mn), reversing prior-period losses, and 2Q2026 product sales reached USD775.6mn. Multiple, partly-uncorrelated commodity streams (gold, copper, nickel) sit within one idA+ issuer, backed by proven sponsors and a repeat PUB IV-V track record.
- Leverage elevated but easing, and the print is refinancing-oriented. Consolidated Net Debt/EBITDA was ~4.45x at FY2025, but the earnings surge has already eased it to ~3.21x on an LTM basis, with net gearing 0.56x, interest coverage 3.92x and DSCR 0.62x. This is a clean-basis print that terms out near-term maturities rather than adding new leverage.
- A repriced entry point over the idA+ secondary curve. Guidance of 1Y 7.25%-8.25% and 3Y 9.00%-10.00% comes as a hawkish, hiking Fed (Aug CPI 3.4%, PPI +5.4%, Brent near USD110) and a higher government curve push new-issue coupons wide. Against idA+ peers clearing ~7.0%-8.5% YTM in secondary, the guide brackets the 1Y curve and sits above the 3Y – one of the higher idA+ carries available in a diversified, inflecting metals credit.
Indicative Timeline
- Bookbuilding: 14 – 25 September 2026
- Public Offering: 9 – 12 October 2026
- Listing: IDX, 19 October 2026
Regards, Aldiracita Research
