Initiating Coverage with BUY (TP: IDR 3,050)
KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Feed carries the cycle. In 2Q26, DOC prices fell 27% QoQ and Commercial Farm swung to an IDR 496bn loss, yet feed EBIT rose 7% to IDR 1.1tn: the group stayed profitable at IDR 659bn, 19% above 2Q25.
- Supply discipline sets the margin. Mandated hatching-egg cuts and the IDR 19,500/kg live bird reference price anchor spreads; we hold EBITDA margin at 11.6%–11.8% through FY28F, below FY25A’s 12.1%.
- Capex peaks, cash follows. After IDR 3.8tn in FY26F, capex settles near IDR 3.0tn from FY27F, lifting FCF to IDR 2.4tn–2.7tn and DPS to IDR 172–188 in FY27F–FY28F.
VALUATION
- BUY (Initiation), TP IDR 3,050 (Last price: IDR 1,990, +53.2% upside), on a 60/40 blend of DCF (WACC 12.3%, TGR 4.0%) and FY27F EV/EBITDA.
- The stock trades at 4.8x FY27F P/E, 30% below peers, despite the highest ROE at 21.2%, and at 4.4x trailing P/E, near -1 SD. Catalysts: live bird prices above the reference, mid-cycle margin delivery, deleveraging, higher dividends.
Regards, Aldiracita Research