Initiating Coverage: COCO – From Cocoa Bean to Regional Brand

July 13, 2026

Rating: BUY | TP: IDR 195 | Upside: 12% vs Last Price IDR 167

Key Highlights

  • Operating Leverage Story: Bibica’s West factory runs at just 25–35% of its 47,000-ton capacity while absorbing full depreciation. Ramp-up via Momogi’s 100,000+ outlet network drives EBITDA from -IDR 37bn (FY25A) to +IDR 377bn by FY30F.
  • Stronger Balance Sheet Post-Rights Issue: Improved EBITDA and solvency should widen COCO’s access to bank funding, enabling expansion without further dilution.
  • Inventory Synergies: Consolidated procurement (cocoa, sugar, packaging) plus SAP ERP rollout to structurally compress inventory days FY26–FY28F.
  • Margin Transformation: Entry into midstream cocoa derivatives (25–35% GM guided) vs low-single-digit-to-low-teens margins in finished chocolate — a low-capex adjacency lifting blended margins.
  • Valuation: TP anchored to TERP (fully diluted, post-Rights Issue) rather than cum-right price — upside seen as fundamentally, not momentum, driven, with room for further re-rating as post-acquisition integration targets are delivered.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

Customer Service (WhatsApp): +6288801010088

Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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8 Temasek Boulevard, #04 – 01, Suntec Tower Three, Singapore 038988

PT Surya Timur Alam Raya Asset Management

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

©Copyright 2024, PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

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