Indonesia’s 2Q GDP beats at 5.29%, but its fiscal engine fades before 2027’s MBG cut

August 5, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Indonesia grew 5.29% year-on-year in Q2, beating the 5.10% consensus but easing from 5.61% in Q1 (+3.73% quarter-on-quarter; first-half 5.45%). The headline is resilient and above consensus.
  • The growth is fiscally driven and the impulse has already peaked. Government consumption led every lens (+15.97% YoY, +18.62% in H1), but its contribution to growth slipped from 1.26pp in Q1 to 1.07pp in Q2. The year-on-year strength is base-flattered · the MBG free-meal programme was tiny in 1H25.
  • The hand-off to private demand is not happening yet: household consumption (53% of GDP) softened to +5.06% from +5.52%, while investment (+6.87%) helped but is import-heavy, so net trade was a drag.
  • MBG’s 2027 budget is projected 35% lower, at IDR174tn from IDR268tn, and with a normalizing base the fiscal contribution could turn neutral-to-negative. Our illustrative scenarios put FY2027 growth at roughly 4.3-5.4%, base case below 5%, hinging on whether households and investment accelerate (Please refer to page 2 of the report). Key watch: a private-demand hand-off in H2 against an APBN revenue run-rate that limits sustaining the spending surge.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Phone: 021-39705858

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Subsidiaries :
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Phone: (021)-39725678

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Anindita Cintasya

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Mindo Leona Christina earned her Bachelor’s degree in Public Relations from Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jakarta in 2000. She joined Aldira in 2021 as Vice President of Fixed Income Sales and has been serving as President Director since 2025. With over 20 years of experience in Indonesia’s capital market, she specializes in Fixed Income. She also holds a capital market license as a Broker-Dealer Representative.

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Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).