KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- August profit rose because banks set aside less for provisions, not because the business improved. Five of the eight banks lifted Aug-26 profit MoM on flat or lower PPOP.
- Over the full eight months, total provisions were 3.5% higher than a year earlier, so the cut is recent. Lower provisions did more for profit than PPOP only at BBTN, BTPS and BRIS.
- Deposit costs kept rising in August, after Bank Indonesia’s 100bp of rate hikes in May and June. Interest expense was up YoY at seven of the eight banks.
- Margins are shrinking at every bank. 8M26 NIM was lower than a year earlier at all eight.
- Bank shares got cheaper again. All eight trade below their own five-year average P/BV, a 35.9% median discount on 1 October.
Regards, Aldiracita Research