KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- BBCA leads the 1H26 scorecard on everything but growth. 31.7% cost to income, 24.1% RoE, 84.3% CASA, yet ranks sixth of eight on net profit and PPOP growth.
- BMRI is the closer challenger and better growth story, 1H26 net profit up 24.0% YoY on PPOP up 20.0%, the only double digit pair in the growth.
- Provisions flattered six of eight banks, net profit outgrew PPOP everywhere except BBNI and BNGA. BBTN was the extreme, net profit up 41.0% while PPOP fell 23.0%. Only BBTN beat consensus, at 62.0% of FY26F.
- Every bank lost margin YoY, three cut FY26 guidance mid year. BBRI led the decline at 7.7%, BRIS 5.4%, BBCA 5.3% versus a 4.9% median.
- Our read: the sector has de-rated ahead of the fundamentals. Every name trades below its five year mean P/BV except BNGA, a 28.7% median discount. Margin compression reads as a funding cost story, not credit. Key watch: whether NIM stabilizes as funding costs normalize into 2H26.
Regards, Aldiracita Research