Indonesia Posts First Monthly Trade Deficit in 13 Months as Migas Gap Doubles

July 2, 2026

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Indonesia’s trade balance flipped to a USD1.61 billion deficit in May 2026 — the first monthly deficit since April 2025 — a sharp reversal from April’s near-zero surplus, with the Jan–May surplus now down 74% YoY to USD4.03B.
  • The migas deficit more than doubled year-on-year, from USD1.53B to USD3.76B, as crude oil exports fell to effectively zero (-100% YoY) while oil product imports nearly doubled (+99.49% YoY) — consistent with the Iran-war energy shock.
  • The nonmigas surplus contracted 63% year-on-year, from USD5.83B to USD2.15B, led by a +16.92% YoY jump in machinery imports and an 85.62% YoY surge in EU imports, while nickel (+60.88% YoY) stayed the sole export bright spot.
  • This print adds a genuine headwind to Rupiah stability and reinforces the case for continued BI hawkishness, strengthening the ~40% probability scenario of a BI hike to 6.0% in Q3 2026.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

Customer Service (WhatsApp): +6288801010088

Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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8 Temasek Boulevard, #04 – 01, Suntec Tower Three, Singapore 038988

PT Surya Timur Alam Raya Asset Management

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

©Copyright 2024, PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

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Anindita Cintasya

Director of Investment Banking

Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Mindo Leona
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Mindo Leona Christina Pardede

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Mindo Leona Christina earned her Bachelor’s degree in Public Relations from Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jakarta in 2000. She joined Aldira in 2021 as Vice President of Fixed Income Sales and has been serving as President Director since 2025. With over 20 years of experience in Indonesia’s capital market, she specializes in Fixed Income. She also holds a capital market license as a Broker-Dealer Representative.

Livius Nurtanio

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Livius graduated from University of Toronto in 1995. He joined PT. Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia as Vice President Director from 4 October 2023. Livius has more than 20+ years of experience in Investment Banking both in Securities, Private Equity and Investment Banks in Indonesia, and overseas such as New York, Hongkong, Singapore as a Research Analyst, Head of Fixed Income, Financial Advisor, Senior Associate, Executive and Managing Director. He holds a capital market license for Broker-Dealer Representative and Underwriter Representative from OJK.

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Christian Kurniawan is a seasoned finance professional with over 15 years of experience in accounting, financial management, and capital markets. Prior to joining Aldiracita, Christian built his career at Moore Stephens Consulting, progressing from Junior to Associate Manager. During this time, he was actively involved in financial due diligence, valuation, and advisory services across various industries, strengthening his expertise in financial analysis and corporate transactions.

Christian holds a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from Universitas Katolik Atma Jaya and is a certified Wakil Perantara Pedagang Efek (WPPE). He has also completed professional programs in taxation and leadership, reflecting his commitment to continuous professional development.

B Hari Mantoro

Independent Commissioner

Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).