KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- The global growth headline is steady, but the mix underneath is not: the IMF holds 2026 world growth at 3.1% and lifts 2027 by 0.2pp to 3.4%, with advanced economies revised up 0.3pp for 2026 while emerging and developing economies were cut 0.2pp.
- Indonesia is upgraded, but not toward the government’s number: the IMF sees 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027, against an APBN of 5.4% for 2026 and 6.0% for 2027, a 0.9pp gap; the World Bank (5.0%) and ADB (5.2%) also sit below the target.
- Energy is the transmission channel: global inflation is projected at 4.7% in 2026, a cumulative 0.7pp above April, on an oil assumption of USD95.74 per barrel (+41.3% yoy), while Indonesia’s current account slips to -1.6% of GDP.
- For investors we rank oil first, rates second and growth third: the IMF’s USD87.39 oil price for 2027 is USD12.4 above the APBN ICP of USD75, while the growth gap alone is a modest fiscal risk of roughly IDR19 trillion of revenue on our illustrative estimate. Key watch: whether third-quarter GDP, due from BPS in early November, holds at or above the 5.3% second-quarter pace needed to reach the APBN’s 5.4% for 2026, or slips toward the 4.8% the IMF’s 5.1% implies for the second half.
Regards, Aldiracita Research
