Hot CPI and PPI keep the Fed hiking; markets price no cuts through 2027

October 16, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • September inflation re-accelerated on both gauges. Headline CPI rose to 3.7% yoy (consensus 3.6%) and core CPI to 2.6% (2.5%). Gasoline supplied about half of the headline increase, while the control group gained only 0.1% and real hourly earnings are down 0.7% yoy.
  • The producer price print was the bigger shock. Final demand PPI rose 1.3% MoM and 6.3% yoy against 0.6% and 5.4% expected, the fastest annual pace since December 2022. Core PPI also beat at 0.7% MoM, but BEA’s PCE methodology change should limit the pass-through to core PCE.
  • Fed pricing moved less than the data. The FedWatch probability of a 28 October hike is 29%, while a hike by 9 December is 92% priced, with about three hikes and a peak near 4.6% in September 2027. No cuts are priced through 2027.
  • Indonesia gets both shocks without the safe-haven bid. Since 1 September the UST 10-year is up 25bp, the Rupiah is 1.2% weaker at IDR17,938 per USD and the SUN 10-year is up 19bp to 7.25%. Key watch: Bank Indonesia’s 20-21 October RDG, then the FOMC on 28 October and September core PCE on 29 October.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

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Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

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Anindita Cintasya

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Mindo Leona Christina earned her Bachelor’s degree in Public Relations from Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jakarta in 2000. She joined Aldira in 2021 as Vice President of Fixed Income Sales and has been serving as President Director since 2025. With over 20 years of experience in Indonesia’s capital market, she specializes in Fixed Income. She also holds a capital market license as a Broker-Dealer Representative.

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Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).