KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- 1H26 revenue IDR 24.0Tn (52% of FY26F, on pace); reported YoY +25.6% is inflated by the XL–Smartfren merger (Smartfren consolidated from 2Q25), so it overstates organic growth. 2Q26 revenue +3.0% QoQ to IDR 12.2Tn; data & digital (90% of revenue) +23.3% YoY, data traffic +19% YoY.
- Reported EBITDA IDR 11.0Tn (+24.6% YoY), margin ~46%; 2Q26 EBITDA +3.1% QoQ. Gross synergies US$153mn YTD (tripled YoY), on track for US$250–300mn.
- Reported net loss IDR 1.0Tn — but an accounting artefact: excluding ~IDR 3.7Tn accelerated depreciation (merger PPA) + integration costs, normalized PAT was +IDR 2.7Tn (~4x YoY). Loss narrowing fast — 2Q26 −IDR 0.28Tn from −IDR 0.72Tn in 1Q26.
- Our read: in-line topline, underlying profitability strong and improving. Reported earnings should turn positive as merger depreciation rolls off; synergy capture and deleveraging are the swing factors. At ~4.6x EV/EBITDA vs a 4.4x 5-year mean, valuation already prices in the recovery. Key watch: pace of accelerated-depreciation roll-off and synergy delivery through 2H26.
Regards, Aldiracita Research