KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- 2Q26 net profit USD 11 Mn, -39.1% QoQ but +70.0% YoY, taking 1H26 to USD 30 Mn: 40.7% of FY26F consensus, a miss, with revenue the only line in-line at 48.9%.
- 2Q26 revenue USD 91 Mn, +34.3% YoY, down just 4.2% QoQ despite a 34-day ammonia turnaround to 8 June 2026; management reports 1H26 realised ammonia ASP up 70% YoY to USD 531/MT.
- 2Q26 gross margin 24.2%, -21.6pp QoQ, as manufacturing cost ran USD 17 Mn above both 1Q26 and 2Q25; 2Q26 EBITDA USD 28 Mn, -39.6% QoQ, leaving 1H26 EBITDA at 41.9% of FY26F.
- Our read: a mechanical miss, not a broken quarter. The cost was planned and does not recur, yet the shortfall is real: consensus now needs 2H26 operating profit up 65.8% YoY from a company that delivered only 36.5% of FY25 operating profit in 1H25. At 7.7x BF P/E against a 13.4x five-year mean, the multiple already sits well below its own history. Key watch: whether 3Q26 clears the USD 8.6 Mn finished-goods build at full post-turnaround rates.
Regards, Aldiracita Research