KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- 2Q26 revenue IDR 38 Bn, +4.3% YoY, -11.7% QoQ, taking 1H26 to IDR 82 Bn: 8.0% of our FY26F, a structural gap: Momogi, Bibica and the Third Rights Issue had all yet to close.
- 2Q26 gross margin 4.7%, -3.1pp QoQ and -4.9pp YoY, against the 24% we model for FY26F; 1H26 improved 1.4pp to 6.3%, but the midstream launch carries the step-up.
- 1H26 operating loss IDR 19 Bn vs IDR 73 Bn: not underlying, since 1H25 carried an IDR 59 Bn other operating expense. Ex those items the loss widened to IDR 19.1 Bn from IDR 13.6 Bn as selling expenses hit IDR 11.1 Bn.
- Our read: the thesis is intact but entirely deferred to 2H26. Nothing in the standalone print validates or breaks the case; FY26F needs the closings and the midstream launch. At 2.9x forward EV/EBITDA versus a 4.1x mean the market is pricing execution risk, though on the post-rights share base the same price is 7.6x. Key watch: Third Rights Issue completion and the Momogi and Bibica closings.
Regards, Aldiracita Research