KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Jul-26 net profit IDR 4.5Tn, -13.3% MoM, +19.0% YoY. Base effect: Jun-26 held IDR 0.8Tn of subsidiary dividends, nil in Jul-26; ex that +3%. 7M26 net profit IDR 33.0Tn (+24.2% YoY), ROE 21.8% vs 18.2%.
- Jul-26 interest expense rose 13.2% MoM vs interest income 5.2%, leaving NII flat at IDR 6.7Tn. 7M26 NIM fell to 4.2% from 4.7%, CIR improved to 35.8% from 43.4%: the ROE gain is cost-led, not margin-led.
- Total loans (eop) rose just 0.3% MoM to IDR 1,596Tn (+19.4% YoY), YTD 6.6% vs FY26 guidance 7-9%. Deposits fell 1.5% MoM; LDR 94.8%, CASA 70.4%, 1H26 NPL 0.98%.
- Our read: returns are improving for a reason with a shelf life. Interest expense outgrew interest income a second month running. 7M26 profit is 57.6% of FY26F (Bank Only), about at pace; revenue 45.7%. At 1.35x P/BV, under its five-year -1SD, the market prices a return far below the 21.8% delivered. Key watch: whether ROE holds once the cost tailwind fades.
Regards, Aldiracita Research