KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Volume is running well ahead of Gaikindo’s 850k target. September wholesales eased 2.7% MoM to 79,540 units but rose 28.1% YoY, lifting 9M26 to 679,020 units (+21.0% YoY), or 79.9% of target. The remaining ~171k units require only ~57k a month in 4Q26 against a 9M average of ~75k. Retail sales (+15.4% YoY) exceeded wholesales in both August and September, so growth is not being built on dealer stock.
- Electrification has gone mainstream, and increasingly local. Electrified models took 32.9% of August wholesales, with battery EVs at a record 21.4% against 17.0% for 8M26. Gaikindo attributes the market’s growth to models priced below IDR 300mn and to BEVs. Locally assembled units made up 86% of August BEV volume, up from 44% in January, led by BYD, which began local production in April.
- The market is growing, but share is moving to Chinese brands. Chinese brands took 19.1% of 8M26 wholesales versus 12.0% a year earlier. Astra’s share eased to 49.8% from 52.9%, yet its volume still rose 13.0%; the clearer losers were Honda (-37.5%) and Chery (-39.7%). Astra recovered to 46.2% in September from 45.0% in August. Commercial vehicles made up 27% of 8M26 volume.
- ASII: volume supports Automotive, while share and pricing are the watchpoints. Automotive was ASII’s largest pillar in 1H26, with net income up 9% YoY to IDR 5.9Tn, or 40% of core earnings. Industry momentum underpins that contribution into 4Q26, but Astra is growing below the market and locally assembled EVs add price competition, leaving mining recovery as the group’s earnings swing factor. Key watch: whether Astra holds a 46-48% monthly share as more EV brands localise production in 4Q26.
Regards, Aldiracita Research
