Government’s 2027 growth target of 5.8-6.5% outpaces Consensus’ 4.6-5.4%.

July 17, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • On 2 July 2026, DPR’s Banggar, the government, and Bank Indonesia agreed Indonesia’s 2027 budget assumptions: growth of 5.8-6.5%, inflation of 1.5-3.5%, a rupiah of IDR16,800-17,500/USD, and ICP of USD70-95/barrel. This follows three years of growth near 5% (5.05% in 2023, 5.03% in 2024, 5.11% in 2025), with 2026 running at 5.61% in Q1.
  • Cross-referencing seven institutions (Fitch, S&P, Moody’s, Goldman Sachs, BofA, Nomura, Bloomberg consensus), 2027 growth estimates cluster at 4.6-5.4%, averaging ~5.0% · as much as 1.5pp below the government’s ceiling. Inflation is a smaller gap: consensus sits at 2.6-2.9%, comfortably inside the government’s band.
  • The strain already shows in 2026’s numbers: ICP has run at USD91.9/barrel versus the APBN’s USD70 assumption, driven by Middle East disruption, while oil lifting has undershot at 535.8 kbpd against a 610 kbpd target. Both are swelling the subsidy and compensation bill to IDR203.7 trillion by May 2026 · a buffer with real limits.
  • The gap risks 2027’s targets being read as aspirational rather than a credible planning benchmark. Aldiracita’s house view sits closer to consensus: growth of 5.0-5.3% and a rupiah of IDR17,200-17,700/USD for 2027. Key watch: whether growth holds above 5.5% through H2 2026 · a deceleration toward consensus would validate the rating agencies’ more cautious read.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

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Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

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Anindita Cintasya

Director of Investment Banking

Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Mario Martin
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Mindo Leona
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Schedule a consultation with our Fixed Income Sales

Mindo Leona Christina Pardede

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Mindo Leona Christina earned her Bachelor’s degree in Public Relations from Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jakarta in 2000. She joined Aldira in 2021 as Vice President of Fixed Income Sales and has been serving as President Director since 2025. With over 20 years of experience in Indonesia’s capital market, she specializes in Fixed Income. She also holds a capital market license as a Broker-Dealer Representative.

Livius Nurtanio

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Livius graduated from University of Toronto in 1995. He joined PT. Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia as Vice President Director from 4 October 2023. Livius has more than 20+ years of experience in Investment Banking both in Securities, Private Equity and Investment Banks in Indonesia, and overseas such as New York, Hongkong, Singapore as a Research Analyst, Head of Fixed Income, Financial Advisor, Senior Associate, Executive and Managing Director. He holds a capital market license for Broker-Dealer Representative and Underwriter Representative from OJK.

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Christian Kurniawan is a seasoned finance professional with over 15 years of experience in accounting, financial management, and capital markets. Prior to joining Aldiracita, Christian built his career at Moore Stephens Consulting, progressing from Junior to Associate Manager. During this time, he was actively involved in financial due diligence, valuation, and advisory services across various industries, strengthening his expertise in financial analysis and corporate transactions.

Christian holds a Bachelor’s degree in Accounting from Universitas Katolik Atma Jaya and is a certified Wakil Perantara Pedagang Efek (WPPE). He has also completed professional programs in taxation and leadership, reflecting his commitment to continuous professional development.

B Hari Mantoro

Independent Commissioner

Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).