KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Pertamina raised Pertamax RON 92 from IDR12,300 to IDR16,250/liter (+32.1%) and Pertamax Green 95 from IDR12,900 to IDR17,000/liter (+31.8%) effective 10 June 2026 — the first Pertamax adjustment since the Iran-Israel war began 28 February 2026.
- Direct CPI impact is moderate at +0.10–0.15pp mtm for June 2026, calibrated from BPS empirical data rather than theoretical estimates.
- The state budget picture is structurally understated: the government’s 70/30 compensation payment structure defers 30% of total energy compensation — estimated at ~IDR46–55T — to a single September settlement tranche.
- Full-year state budget subsidy and compensation is on track to breach the implied budget ceiling of ~IDR447T in the adverse case: with ICP still at USD85–90/bbl (vs state budget assumption USD70) and IDR at 17,000+, the projected full-year in the adverse scenario is IDR470–500T — IDR23–53T over the ceiling.
Regards, Aldiracita Research