KEY TAKEAWAYS — RE-VERIFIED ANALYSIS
- USTR formally proposed Section 301 tariff rates on 2 June 2026 under the forced labor investigation covering 60 economies: 10% for economies with a forced labor prohibition or ART commitment; 12.5% for the remaining 46 with no such steps.
- CORRECTION from prior analysis: Cambodia, Bangladesh, and Malaysia are in the SAME 10% tier as Indonesia — not at 15–19% as previously reported. Indonesia’s real tariff advantage is specifically vs Vietnam, Thailand, India, South Korea, and Japan — all in the 12.5% tier.
- Indonesia’s real structural advantage is the ART signed February 19–20, 2026: 1,819 goods at 0% tariff, comprising 1,695 industrial products and 124 agricultural products — a scale of product-level exemption that no ASEAN competitor currently matches.
- The key unknown: Section 301 Investigation 2 (excess manufacturing capacity) covering 16 economies — including Indonesia, Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand — has produced no proposed rates yet. This is the investigation that could materially reshape the tariff gap.
Regards, Aldiracita Research