KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Net profit IDR 159 Bn in 3Q26, up 207.2% YoY but down 39.3% QoQ, as 2Q26 carried an IDR 186 Bn after-tax revaluation gain. 9M26 reached 90.6% of FY26F consensus, or 57.8% ex-gain.
- Revenue rose 23.0% YoY to IDR 1.9 Tn in 3Q26, helped by Arutmin (+21.9% QoQ) and IDR 119 Bn of third-party revenue, yet 9M26 is only 71.0% of FY26F, a Miss.
- 3Q26 gross margin widened 10.8pp YoY to 22.3%, the first full quarter after DEWA took over PAMA’s KPC work, with purchases from PAMA at nil. EBITDA rose 70.5% YoY to IDR 621 Bn, but finance cost doubled to IDR 112 Bn.
- Our read: internalisation pays off in margin, but the balance sheet tightens. September’s current ratio was 0.70x, with IDR 2.3 Tn of bank debt due within a year. At 4.5x forward EV/EBITDA, below the 5.1x five-year mean, the stock gives little credit for the step-up. Key watch: whether Sebuku’s first full quarter lifts 4Q26 revenue toward IDR 2.1 Tn and restores the 1.0x current-ratio covenant without another waiver.
Regards, Aldiracita Research