KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Revenue quality beneath August’s 25.4% headline growth is mixed: PPh Badan grew 25.5% net versus only 5.5% gross, and PPN Dalam Negeri grew 53.9% net versus just 7.8% gross, while a one-off IDR55.0 trillion Bank Indonesia surplus means roughly IDR188.1 trillion of reported revenue is non-recurring or timing-driven.
- Stripping both effects widens our normalized deficit to an implied IDR428.2 trillion, or 1.66% of GDP, from the reported IDR240.1 trillion (0.93%) · still inside the 3% ceiling, but a less flattering picture.
- Subsidy and compensation spending is tracking a full-year overshoot of IDR50.5 trillion (11.3%) on ICP averaging USD89.2/bbl against a USD70 budget, while MBG still has IDR17.5 trillion (8.0%) of headroom at its current pace.
- DPR ratified the APBN 2027 law on 29 September at a record IDR4,106.3 trillion in spending against IDR3,435.1 trillion in revenue; the deficit narrows to 2.40% of GDP from 2.68%, and revenue growth (8.9%) outpaces spending growth (6.9%) for the first time in this comparison.
- Badan Gizi Nasional’s IDR240.2 trillion FY2027 allocation sits above both its 2026 ceiling and our 8M26 realization pace, as the ICP assumption eases to USD75/bbl from USD70. Key watch: whether ICP and the Rupiah again run meaningfully above their APBN 2027 assumptions once Jan-2027 realization data starts flowing.
Regards, Aldiracita Research
