MEDC — 2Q26 Results BEAT: price spike, Amman rebound

September 22, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Net profit USD 208 Mn in 2Q26, +208.6% QoQ and against USD 13 Mn a year earlier, taking 1H26 to USD 275 Mn, or 71.1% of FY26F. All four consensus lines beat.
  • 2Q26 revenue USD 746 Mn, +27.3% YoY, on a realised oil price up 31.5% QoQ to USD 98.8/bbl while production rose only 1.6% to 171.4 mboepd.
  • 2Q26 gross margin 47.8%, +13.1pp QoQ, as cost of revenue fell 10.7%, led by crude purchases, with cash cost at USD 7.7/boe. EBITDA USD 454 Mn, a 60.8% margin. Amman supplied 34.0% of 2Q26 net profit, down from 49.7% in 1Q26.
  • Our read: a good print, better quality than the headline. Operating profit did more of the work than Amman. The catch is price: USD 98.8/bbl is the highest quarter MedcoEnergi has disclosed since 2024, and at 3.6x forward EV/EBITDA against a 3.9x five-year mean the market is not paying for it to last. Key watch: whether 3Q26 realised oil holds near USD 98.8/bbl, worth USD 140 Mn of EBITDA per USD 10/bbl.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Phone: 021-39705858

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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