KEY HIGHLIGHTS
- Suahasil Nazara was sworn in as finance minister on 14 September, the third of this administration, after Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa served 371 days. He repeated his standing commitment to a deficit below 3%, a line he has used since May.
- The government projects 2.85% for 2026, leaving about IDR 39tn of headroom under a ceiling S&P called a critical credit anchor in July. Pertamina alone was still owed IDR 166.84tn at the end of August.
- The revenue side is thinner than it looks. The largest single line is a IDR 120tn dividend from Danantara that Danantara has resisted, and tobacco excise was not raised for 2026.
- The two markets read the day differently. The JCI was down 2.60% at 14:58 then closed -0.10% below Friday, while the 10-year bond yield did not move much at 7.158 percent.
- The financing task is the point. The first half ran a deficit of only 0.76% of GDP, leaving IDR 537.8tn, or 73 percent of the year’s deficit, to be financed after June.
Regards, Aldiracita Research
