SMGR — 2Q26 Results MISS, as distribution and promotion costs absorb the whole gross margin recovery

September 3, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • Net profit IDR 148 Bn in 2Q26, +84.1% QoQ against a IDR 3 Bn loss in 2Q25, taking 1H26 to IDR 228 Bn or 42.9% of FY26 consensus, almost all of it from net finance cost down 33.7% YoY and tax at 40.5% against 95.4%.
  • 2Q26 revenue IDR 9.4 Tn, +17.7% YoY, on 9.5% more tonnes and 7.5% higher revenue per ton, domestic volume +13.7%.
  • 2Q26 gross margin 22.7%, up 2.9pp, yet operating margin 0.1pp lower at 3.7%. Selling expense rose 72.4% YoY on freight and promotion, yet domestic market share eased to 46.3% from 46.9%.
  • Our read: the recovery is real but bought, not earned. 1H26 revenue at 47.5% of consensus beats the 44.3% SMGR managed in 1H25, yet EBITDA at 45.1% trails last year’s 45.9% because the margin gain went into freight and promotion. At 3.7x forward EV/EBITDA against a 5.9x mean, that is discounted; durability is not. Key watch: whether 3Q26 selling expense per ton retreats while domestic share holds near 46%.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

Customer Service (WhatsApp): +6288801010088

Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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8 Temasek Boulevard, #04 – 01, Suntec Tower Three, Singapore 038988

PT Surya Timur Alam Raya Asset Management

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

©Copyright 2024, PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).