AADI — 2Q26 Results BEAT, as the 1Q26 cost bulge unwinds and operating leverage lifts margins sharply

September 1, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • 2Q26 net profit USD 331Mn, +131.2% QoQ, 1H26 at 54.1% of FY26F consensus, operating profit 58.0% and EBITDA 57.2% ahead of the 50% pace.
  • 2Q26 revenue USD 1.5Bn, +43.9% QoQ, volume and price in almost equal measure. Sales recovered to 18.4Mt from 15.1Mt in a wet first quarter, ASP to USD 75.6/t from USD 65.6/t.
  • 2Q26 gross margin 35.0%, the widest since listing. Cash cost fell to USD 49.4/t from USD 51.7/t as stripping dropped to 3.8x against 4.3x guidance, taking cash margin to USD 26.2/t from USD 13.9/t.
  • Our read: a clean, operating-led beat, Kestrel gain still ahead; that USD 736Mn stake was still held for sale at 30 June. But half-year volume is flat at 33.5Mt, so 1H26 growth is price, and a stronger second half was already the market view, in the price at 3.7x forward EV/EBITDA above +1SD. Key watch: whether Kestrel completes in 3Q26, and whether Danantara’s export centralisation from September disrupts the 70% of revenue exported.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: 021-39705858

Customer Service (WhatsApp): +6288801010088

Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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8 Temasek Boulevard, #04 – 01, Suntec Tower Three, Singapore 038988

PT Surya Timur Alam Raya Asset Management

Menara Tekno Lt. 9 Jl. Fachrudin No. 19 Jakarta Pusat 10250

Phone: (021)-39725678

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Anindita Cintasya

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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Mindo Leona Christina Pardede

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Mindo Leona Christina earned her Bachelor’s degree in Public Relations from Institut Ilmu Sosial dan Politik Jakarta in 2000. She joined Aldira in 2021 as Vice President of Fixed Income Sales and has been serving as President Director since 2025. With over 20 years of experience in Indonesia’s capital market, she specializes in Fixed Income. She also holds a capital market license as a Broker-Dealer Representative.

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Hari received his degree from the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia in 1988. He became the Independent Commissioner of PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia on 24 March 24 2023. He began his work in the financial industry in 1976 at a foreign bank in Jakarta and later worked for a security company in the capital market. Having worked in the financial market for over 30+ years, Hari has held positions as a President Director, Directors and Senior Manager. He is currently an competency assessor for Lembaga Sertifikasi Profesi Pasar Modal Indonesia (LSPPMI).