ITMG — 2Q26 Results SLIGHT MISS; rising unit costs erode ASP-led margin gain

August 11, 2026

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

  • 2Q26 net profit USD 51 Mn, -6.1% QoQ but +97.3% YoY off a weak 2Q25; 1H26 USD 106 Mn = 43.7% of FY26F consensus, a miss, while revenue sits on pace at 50.4%.
  • 2Q26 revenue USD 503 Mn, +15.1% YoY, flat QoQ; 1H26 ASP +3.8% YoY to USD 81/t and sales volume +5.1% to 12.3 Mt, but production fell 4.8% to 9.9 Mt, below ITMG’s own 10.1 Mt target.
  • 2Q26 gross margin 24.6%, -2.1pp QoQ, as our estimated cash cost ex-royalty and depreciation rose 9.2% QoQ to USD 60.2/t, double the 4.2% ASP gain; 1H26 strip ratio up a full turn to 10.3x.
  • Our read: a decent quarter that still leaves FY26 consensus demanding. 2H26 needs operating profit +28.1% and net profit +36.4% YoY, but volume hinges on 2026 RKAB and DMO allocations management flags as constraining supply, and the stock already trades at 7.1x blended-forward P/E vs a 5.4x five-year mean. Key watch: the 2H26 RKAB allocation and whether unit costs ease.

Regards, Aldiracita Research

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Phone: 021-39705858

Customer Service (WhatsApp): +6288801010088

Email: [email protected]

Subsidiaries :
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Phone: (021)-39725678

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Anindita Cintasya is an experienced finance and investment professional specializing in debt capital markets. With a Bachelor’s degree in Business Administration from Universitas Indonesia (2007), she has built a strong career in investment banking, holding key roles at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, CIMB Niaga Sekuritas, and CGS-CIMB Sekuritas Indonesia. She holds multiple certifications, including a Risk Management Competency Certification and WPPE license, demonstrating her expertise in capital market regulations. Currently serving as VP Debt Capital Market – Investment Banking Associate at PT Aldiracita Sekuritas Indonesia, she has a proven track record of managing and coordinating debt issuance processes.

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